Core Industries Grow 7.9% in September 2026; Electricity and Refinery Output Lead

Output of India's core industries grew 7.9% in September 2026 over September 2025, the fastest pace of the current financial year, according to the provisional Index of Core Industries released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 21 October 2026. The index, on base year 2022-23, stood at 118.3 for September against 109.6 a year earlier. Electricity, refinery products and steel, which together carry more than 70% of the index weight, account for most of the rise.

The same release revised August 2026 growth upward from 4.8% to 5.9%, with the final August index at 120.4 against the provisional 119.2. Cumulative growth for April to September 2026 is 5.1%, against 2.5% in the same six months of 2025-26.

Sector-wise core industries growth for September 2026

The index tracks nine industries, each with a fixed weight. The table gives the weight, the September 2026 index, the year-on-year change for September and the cumulative change for April to September 2026, as published.

Six of the nine industries grew in September. Iron ore posted the sharpest rise at 18.4%, electricity grew 11.4%, coal 10.7% and refinery products 10.3%. Fertilizers fell 11.7%, natural gas 4.6% and crude oil 1.4%. Cement, at 9.8%, stayed close to its six-month pace of 10.1%.

Which industries drove the 7.9% rise: a weighted reading

Growth rates by themselves overstate the role of small industries. Iron ore grew fastest, but with a weight under 5% it moved the index far less than electricity, which carries close to 31%. An illustration using the published weights and the September 2025 and September 2026 sector indices shows how the 7.9% splits.

The contribution of an industry is its weight multiplied by the change in its index, divided by the weighted index of the base month. The weighted September 2025 index works out to 109.62 (the published figure is 109.6). For electricity, the index rose from 115.2 to 128.3, a change of 13.1 points; 30.932% of 13.1 is 4.05 points, and 4.05 divided by 109.62 gives about 3.7 percentage points. For refinery products, the index rose from 99.0 to 109.2; 22.572% of 10.2 is 2.30 points, or about 2.1 percentage points. Steel, from 133.0 to 139.5, adds about 1.0 percentage point.

On this arithmetic, electricity, refinery products and steel together supply about 6.8 of the 7.9 percentage points, or roughly 86% of the September growth. Iron ore adds about 0.75 points, coal about 0.5 and cement about 0.4. Fertilizers take away about 0.3 points, natural gas about 0.16 and crude oil about 0.09. These are computed figures from the release tables, not numbers published by the ministry, and they add up to the published growth within rounding.

Low base from September 2025 behind the headline number

Part of the jump reflects a weak September 2025. The combined index grew only 3.1% in September 2025, with refinery products down 3.2%, coal down 1.1% and electricity up only 3.1%. A recovery in those three over a soft base lifts the year-on-year rate more than the absolute level of output would suggest. Steel shows the opposite pattern: it grew 14.3% in September 2025 and only 4.9% this September, on a high base.

The month-by-month path for 2026-27 has been uneven. Year-on-year growth of the index was 2.7% in April, 3.2% in May, 6.0% in June, 5.0% in July and 5.9% in August (final), before the 7.9% in September. In August, electricity had grown 13.1% and cement 11.7%, while coal fell 3.8% and fertilizers 12.4%, so the September turnaround in coal from a decline to 10.7% growth is the largest swing between the two months.

Weak spots: fertilizers, natural gas and crude oil

Three industries remain in decline for both September and the six-month period. Fertilizer output is down 7.6% for April to September, natural gas 4.4% and crude oil 3.7%. Their combined weight is about 14%, small enough that they do not pull the index down much, but the fall in domestic crude and gas output runs alongside the sharp rise in fuel prices visible in wholesale inflation. The September 2026 WPI release showed the fuel and power group up 25.85% year-on-year and crude petroleum and natural gas up 57.32%.

Power and refinery demand ahead of the December MPC meeting

The provisional core index for a month is released on the 20th of the following month and covers the heaviest industrial inputs, which makes it one of the earliest official readings on industrial activity for that month. For analysts building monthly volume or demand assumptions, power generation growth of 11.4% and refinery throughput growth of 10.3% point to firm energy demand in September. For borrowers and treasury teams, the stronger activity reading comes in the same month that the Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%; the minutes of that October MPC meeting show members divided on how quickly to tighten further, and firm output alongside double-digit wholesale inflation forms part of the backdrop for the next meeting on 2 to 4 December 2026.

The September figures are provisional and will be revised with the next release; the August revision of 1.1 percentage points shows the size such changes can reach. Sector-level series from April 2023 under the 2022-23 base are available on the Office of the Economic Adviser's core industries download page. The provisional index for October 2026, and the final figure for September, are due on 20 November 2026.

Official source: View the official source document